Unwind pressure
Pressure elevated
Carry windingUnwind pressure
VelocityLeaning toward carry0.45% yen weaker over five trading observations
Transparent monitoring heuristic—not a forecast or probability of market loss.
Evergreen market-liquidity dashboard
Yen Carry Trade Unwind Monitor
57/100
Does USD/JPY break 155—and does the stress spread?
The yen has strengthened quickly from its Sep. 1 level. A clean break below 155, paired with weakness in carry currencies, credit and equities, would turn a currency move into stronger evidence of forced deleveraging.
ConstructiveUSD/JPY stabilizes and volatility stays contained.
AdverseBelow 155 as cross-asset selling and short covering accelerate.
S
SAVIOR'S TAKE
Pressure remains elevated, but confirmation is incomplete.
The policy gap and intervention risk keep the setup fragile, but a full unwind still requires simultaneous yen strength, short covering, higher volatility and weakness across carry destinations.
- Watch 155 first, then 152.
- Watch MXN, BRL, ZAR, credit and equities together.
- Watch the Sep. 15–18 Fed/BOJ decision window.
Live updates · Public signal desk
What changed—and what matters now
Refreshed at 5:30 a.m. Eastern each day, with market observations updated after their source publishes.
The yen is 0.45% yen weaker across five trading observations.
USD/JPY is 155.00 as of Sep 15, 2026. The prior “waiting for five days” state is gone; the monitor now keeps enough history to calculate velocity even if a source is briefly unavailable.
ECB reference rates via FrankfurterThe broad forced-selling cluster is still missing.
Carry currencies, credit and major risk assets remained resilient while volatility stayed subdued and FIMA usage remained zero. The yen move matters, but it had not yet become a synchronized liquidation across markets.
Private flows turned yen-bullish while the last futures snapshot stayed crowded short.
Reuters reported bank-flow and options evidence of growing yen demand. Separately, official non-commercial futures were net short 92,227 contracts on Sep. 1—28,929 more net shorts than the prior week. The clocks differ, so the next CFTC snapshot is an important corroboration test.
Both central-bank decisions remain live.
A strong August U.S. jobs report rebuilt the case for a Fed hike, while the BOJ is widely expected to raise to about 1.25%. Next week's U.S. inflation releases are the main remaining Fed swing factor.
The long-rate gap is about 2.06 percentage points.
The spread still rewards dollar assets, but the yen's recent rise shows that carry returns can be overwhelmed by currency movement before the interest advantage disappears.
U.S. Treasury XML feedUSD / JPY
155.00Daily reference · Sep 15, 2026ECB reference rates via FrankfurterFive-observation yen move
0.45%Yen weakerVisible yen futures positioning
−92,227Net non-commercial contracts · Sep. 1CFTC10-year yield gap
2.06 ptsU.S. minus Japan; still positiveU.S. 10-year Treasury
4.97%Daily par yield · Sep 14, 2026U.S. Treasury XML feedJapan 10-year JGB
≈2.91%Sep. 4 market check; Sep. 1 auction avg. 2.995%Market yield referenceThe policy gap
Rates, inflation & the next decision
The carry survives while the reward for holding dollars materially exceeds yen funding costs—but currency moves can erase that spread first.
US
United States
Federal Reserve
- Policy rate
- 3.50–3.75%
- Headline CPI
- 3.4% y/y July
- Next meeting
- Sep. 15–16
MARKET BASE CASEKnife-edge; +25 bps slightly favored
Strong August payrolls rebuilt the hike case. August PPI and CPI remain the decisive swing data.
Hawkish surprise+50 bps or guidance for consecutive hikes
Dovish surpriseHold with guidance that inflation is improving
JP
Japan
Bank of Japan
- Policy rate
- 1.00%
- Headline CPI
- 1.9% y/y July
- Next meeting
- Sep. 17–18
MARKET BASE CASE+25 bps to about 1.25%
Markets assigned roughly 97% odds to a September hike in the Sep. 4 Reuters check; the signal about follow-up moves may matter more than the first step.
Hawkish surprise+50 bps or explicit back-to-back hike guidance
Dovish surpriseHold; a cut would be an extreme reversal
Meeting expectations are market/editorial readings as of Sep. 5, 2026—not official commitments.
Official support & market firepower
What has actually been spent
Confirmed intervention, contemplated amounts and liquidity facilities are different things. This monitor keeps them separate.
Yen-buying intervention
Japan's Ministry of Finance reported this total for July 30 through August 26, 2026.
Official disclosureU.S. leg of joint intervention
The U.S. confirmed participation. A photographed planning note referenced a $5–10B yen purchase, but the executed amount has not been separately published.
Joint-action statementForeign-official repo outstanding
The Fed's Sep. 3 H.4.1 release showed no foreign-official repo outstanding on Sep. 2. Capacity is not usage.
Federal Reserve H.4.1Central-bank balance sheets
Domestic bonds & equities held
These are central-bank holdings—not a consolidated measure of everything each national government owns.
| Central bank | Own-government bonds | Domestic equities | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | $4.552TU.S. Treasury securities | $0 broad portfolioNo common-stock line item in H.4.1 | Sep. 2, 2026 | H.4.1 |
| Bank of Japan | ¥519.928TJapanese government securities | ¥36.984TIndex-linked ETF trusts, book value | Aug. 31, 2026 | BOJ accounts |
The 90-second brief
What it is—and why it matters
What it is
Funding in lower-yielding yen, then owning higher-yielding foreign assets or currencies.
Why it matters
A rapid yen rise can erase the yield advantage, trigger margin calls and force sales of liquid risk assets.
What confirms it
Yen strength plus narrowing rate gaps, short covering, rising volatility and synchronized weakness across carry destinations.
What does not
One headline, one intervention or one falling asset. The signal must travel through funding, positioning and risk markets.
Cross-market confirmation
Other currencies & countries to watch
The signal becomes more serious when several liquid carry destinations weaken together as the yen strengthens.
MXNMexico
High-yield carry destination
Peso weakness alongside a stronger yen is a classic cross-market confirmation.BRLBrazil
High-yield carry destination
Watch the real, local yields and sovereign-credit spreads for forced risk reduction.ZARSouth Africa
Liquid high-beta currency
The rand often reacts quickly when global leverage and commodity risk are cut.AUDAustralia
Risk and China-growth proxy
A falling Aussie with yen strength can signal the move is broader than Japan.CHFSwitzerland
Alternative funding / defensive currency
Franc strength can confirm a wider retreat from leveraged risk.Live curated feed
Latest reporting to read next
Trusted-source headlines and links are cleaned into a public feed. Open links leave this dashboard.
01
Sep 9, 2026 · Reuters
↗02What is the yen carry trade?
Sep 15, 2026 · Investing.com
↗03USD/JPY, DAX Forecast: 2 Trades to Watch
Sep 14, 2026 · Reuters
↗04BOJ executive saw need for vigilance to 'non-linear' inflation spikes
Sep 7, 2026 · Reuters
↗Takaichi's reflationist aide projects Bank of Japan rate hike in September
How the score works Methodology + source ledger
Five evidence buckets
- Trigger proximity: USD/JPY level and intervention pressure.
- Velocity: yen strengthening across five trading observations.
- Policy compression: expected BOJ tightening versus the U.S.–Japan rate gap.
- Positioning: visible non-commercial yen futures shorts.
- Transmission: JGB stress, volatility and carry-destination confirmation.
Interpretation
0–24: carry winding · 25–49: carry intact · 50–69: pressure elevated · 70–84: unwind building · 85–100: disorderly-risk cluster.
The score does not estimate the total size of the carry trade or predict a portfolio return.
Go deeper
Read the full yen carry trade insight
Understand how the trade works, where leverage hides and how an orderly normalization can turn disorderly.